Nah, Donald Trump probably won’t be back in the White House. Here’s why

Photo by US Mission to the European Union – https://www.flickr.com/photos/us2eu/48003274183, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=79482430

Read the petroleum trails just as you would the tea leaves. The Gulf Arab states aren’t overwhelmingly stumping up for Jared Kushner’s new investment company, Affinity Partners. (Click here, here and here to read earlier blogs about Jared Kushner during Donald Trump’s presidency.)

That, more than America’s domestic politics, tells us about the chances of Mr Trump returning to the White House in 2024 (or rather on January 20, 2025).

Like everyone else, the oil-rich Gulf states like to stay invested in powerful players. They aren’t above throwing spare millions at likely candidates. And yet, both the Qataris and the Emiratis aren’t adding money to the Kushner coffers.

That has to be significant. Not the Qataris so much perhaps – there is some speculation that they feel ill-used by Mr Kushner during his father-in-law’s presidency. But the Emiratis’ refusal to invest in Mr Kushner’s new business may indicate their view of Mr Trump’s political future.

Or, as The New York Times (paywall) suggests, both the Qataris and Emiratis think so little of Mr Kushner’s record as a businessman they are leery of investing.

Perhaps.

But they would surely be aware of the signal such a rejection would send to a future Trump White House and a US president who holds loyalty to his family above almost everything?

So perhaps the Qataris and Emiratis know something about the next American presidential election that US pollsters don’t?