Pundits are doing their professional best to predict the course of the next 12 months and some – notably, the Financial Times – claim to be particularly good at it.
The FT says that “for 2021, 17 of the FT’s 20 forecasts proved correct. We were wrong about the US rejoining the Iran nuclear deal, and too pessimistic on Covid vaccinations (about half the total world population has received two doses, suggesting more than half of adults have). Progress on diversity in US boardrooms also beat our benchmark.”
That said, predictions are mostly a mug’s name. Who can say whether or not Russia will invade Ukraine or China, Taiwan? One rather doubts either, but nothing is certain; much depends on how other actors behave, deals done and so on. Will a still more infectious coronavirus variant than Omicron emerge or will the pandemic merely fade into an epidemic? Will equities be badly hit by tighter monetary policy?
Who knows? I would suggest neither pundits nor players can really say.