Scary to read Carlo Masala’s If Russia Wins while Trump pushes Ukraine down

The spectre of Russian election interference as visualised some years ago by TVOntario, a Canadian publicly funded English language educational television station

In an unfortunate coincidence, I’m reading German political science professor Carlo Masala’s bestselling alt-facts book If Russia Wins right now. It’s a bad moment to have this slim volume (just 130 pages) in your hands for this is the point Donald Trump metaphorically wrestles Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky to the ground.

The US president has given Mr Zelensky until Thursday, November 27 to agree to a so-called peace plan, a 28-point proposal that basically posits ending Russia’s nearly four-year war on Ukraine with defeat for the latter. If Ukraine accepts Mr Trump’s proposal, it will ensure Russia wins its illegal invasion of its neighbour. It will mean Ukraine is forced to capitulate despite the heroic defence of its territory, its sovereignty, culture, politics and way of life.

Ironically, Ukraine’s deadline day, November 27, is marked in the US as Thanksgiving. Ukraine will surely not be giving thanks the supposed friendship of Trump’s America. With friends like these…no need for outright enemies.

Anyway, back to the unfortunate coincidence of Professor Masala’s book. It is set around a very clear premise: what if there isn’t a happily ever after? What if Russia wins? What if it takes victory in Ukraine as an encouraging signal? What if it starts to see as right, even ordained, any greater ambitions of conquest of parts of the Baltic states?

The Professor creates the following scenario: A ceasefire is signed in Geneva between Ukraine and Russia. It triggers a chain of events that ends Europe’s post-WWII security order. A Russian operation in Nato member Estonia tests the resolve of the military alliance.  Should the US and Nato think less about the threat of nuclear escalation and more about defending themselves?

The Professor paints a frightening picture. That said, it is, still, a fictional view of tomorrow. As of now, Russia’s win is still in the realm of alt-facts.

With Mr Trump pushing Ukraine down, how long will it be alt-facts?