‘If a rogue America wins’. An updated scenario to the one about Russia?
Image: Geopolitical Economy Research Group
Several months after a chilling scenario about possible Russian aggression in Europe became a bestseller, is it time to update the cast and script?
The book, by German international relations professor Carlo Masala, is titled If Russia Wins: A Scenario. Set in 2028, it imagines an audacious Russian military operation in Estonia.(Click here to read about Professor Masala’s book.)
Now that Donald Trump has reaffirmed his desire to seize Greenland, within hours of bombarding Venezuela and kidnapping its president, an updated alternative book title could be If a Rogue America Wins: A Scenario.
It’s entirely plausible because on January 4, President Trump casually suggested the US could unilaterally enter, subvert or territorially seize other countries or parts thereof, after its attack on Venezuela. He threatened Colombia and its president Gustavo Petro, said Cuba is “ready to fall” and reasserted his desire to take control of Greenland.
So what would anyone do? What could anyone do?
What would Europe do if the US set out to capture Greenland, possibly by despatching a couple thousand extra troops to the existing US Pituffik Space Base on the northwest coast of the Danish autonomous territory? Would the European Union (EU) of which Denmark is a part, respond strongly? Would Nato, of which Denmark is a part, respond?
What would the South American region do if the US launched an attack on Colombia or actively worked to disrupt Cuba?
Colombia is a member of the Pacific Alliance, a small trade bloc, and also belongs to the Mercosur regional trade bloc but both can do little more than issue statements of condemnation.
Cuba is a founding member of the anti-imperialist ALBA-TCP (Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America), a member of the broader CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) and has been seeking deeper ties with BRICS. None of these could do much about hostile US military and political manouevres.
So a rogue America would win.
Unless there were a broad and deep attempt to isolate the United States as one would a mad dog.
In this context, the scenario Professor Masala set out in his book If Russia Wins is worth recalling.
He imagines that the Russians capture Narva in Estonia as a way to test Nato’s resolve. They correctly predict that Nato will not have the stomach to launch a counter-attack and defend territory. Estonia is part of Nato, whose core principle since it was founded in 1949 is Article 5 of its treaty. Article 5 requires collective defence.
The Russian attack should technically have prompted the Nato military alliance to respond strongly and firmly. But Nato does not offer any pushback because the book’s fictional US president says he’s unwilling “to risk World War III over some small town in Estonia”.
If the same sort of thing happened over Greenland, Colombia and Cuba, a rogue America will win…and rule over us all.
We have been warned.
