Will coming storm of factional fights be too strong even for the Don?
No one can know what will happen in the 47 months that remain to Donald Trump in the White House (should he stay in office for just the two terms he’s allowed). However, very many smart people passionately predict bloody factional conflict between different elites fighting for their own versions of America.
The most brutal battles are forecast between the two most powerful groups within the Trump coalition – economic nationalists and the techno right.
Dani Rodrik, Harvard Kennedy School professor of international political economy, recently noted that both groups see themselves as “anti-system” and disruptors.
This is true but both want to smash the system for different ends.
The economic nationalists want a return to an imagined golden yesterday of industrial glory.
The techno right wants a golden tomorrow run by AI and technology and served by whichever kind of human (resident native or immigrant) is best fits the job.
The economic nationalists believe the rich need to pay more; the techno right believes the exact opposite.
It’s Steve Bannon Vs Elon Musk.
A showdown may be inevitable even though the entire anti-elite coalition backing Mr Trump does share an important basic reality – it is elite itself, being either establishment, part of the plutocracy or the tech moghuls.
As many others have noted, the patrimonial model of governance that Big Daddy Trump is instituting in America won’t discourage allies or courtiers clashing with each other. In fact it works to the Big Don’s advantage that neither group amass too much power and for each to appeal to him to settle disputes.
The problem may arise when Mr Trump’s nostrums offer little relief. Both these groups are ideologically driven rather than fixated on mere monetary profit or the arrogation of government power to themselves.
Mr Trump’s narcissistic, ideology-free universe may prove too small to contain these multitudes.
